Let me get started with my take on the Stan Liebowitz paper. I'm going to refer to specific page numbers, and the numbers I use correspond to his page numbering rather than Adobe Reader's page count.
On page 5, Liebowitz lays the foundation for his entire argument:
Americans spend approximately 2.7 hours per day listening to radio but
only 40 minutes listening to prerecorded music. Yet the main ingredient of
radio broadcasts is prerecorded music, for which radio stations pay very little if
anything. If listening to radio were treated like a substitute for listening to
prerecorded music (much as blank tapes were treated as substitutes for the
purchase of a prerecorded tape by partisans for the RIAA) then simple
arithmetic might suggest that five times as many records would be sold if radio
didn’t exist. Although we shouldn’t take the math seriously, the possibility of
harm is certainly worth examining.
Liebowitz cites
this information when coming up with those numbers. His logic is flawed, though. He equates time spent listening to CDs to CD sales. Just because you only listen to one CD a day (which takes around 40 minutes), doesn't mean you're not going to buy more CDs. You could buy a new CD every day and listen to it once. That would be the RIAA's dream-come-true, but you're still only listening for 40 minutes or so. And three hours listening to radio doesn't indicate which formats. Music formats generally dominate their markets (except Chicago), but most morning shows on music formats are talk-oriented anyway. Potentially, the listener could be tuning in just for the morning show.
On Page 7, Liebowitz makes this point:
By way of comparison, the exposure effect seems likely to be stronger in the
case of radio than in the case of MP3 downloads. Downloaders were unlikely to
just encounter music that they enjoyed since downloaders are required to look
for music using a search engine. Radio stations, in contrast, play music not
chosen by and often unknown to the listener. The listener’s choice of the radio
station or program, however, reveals that the listener enjoys the particular
genre of music played by the station, increasing the possibility that the listener
will encounter new music that he or she will wish to purchase.
Why does he include this point? I actually have a feeling that I'm missing something here. This lone paragraph seems to negate his whole argument. Radio exposes people to new music? No kidding? And the listener will be more likely to buy that music? I guess radio does the music industry quite a bit of good, then. Where else are people going to learn about new music? Not from MP3 downloads, apparently. I find that paragraph puzzling.
More to come. I'm even going to cover some points where I think Liebowitz gets it right.